Private sector employers are getting ready for an influx of newly-unemployed but highly-skilled federal workers — like “talent that works in tech, in particular mathematical sciences and economics.”
That is what Recruitics CEO, Adam Stafford, shared with Mitchell Hartman on NPR’s Marketplace Morning Report earlier today. The conversation focused on the February jobs report and the impact of federal layoffs by DOGE on the job market.
The Labor Department releases the February jobs report Friday morning, and to say it’ll be “closely watched” is an understatement.
It’s the first jobs report to fall fully under the new Trump administration, and a lot has happened since Trump took office a second time that could majorly impact the labor market: from mass federal-government layoffs and downsizing being pursued by DOGE, to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, to big drops in consumer confidence and the stock market.
How much all that will show up in Friday’s report is an open question.
January was a weird month: bad winter weather and fires in California kept job creation low, while the unemployment rate actually fell. February could also be weird — or at least, packed with surprises — but not for the reasons one might expect, noted Dan North at credit insurer Allianz Trade North America.
“It’s not so much the DOGE firings or layings-off— that’s going to show up in the next couple of months,” he said.
"January revealed new trends across key sectors as employers face rising recruitment costs and ongoing labor shortages. While healthcare and retail showed steady increases in talent acquisition costs, sectors like hospitality and transportation & logistics are seeing year-over-year costs skyrocket due to heightened competition for talent. At the same time, the shift of federal employees into the private sector is expected to have significant effects on the labor market, reshaping hiring strategies in the months ahead," said Adam Stafford, CEO of Recruitics.
Listen to the full podcast (press play below) to dive deeper into Adam Stafford's expert perspectives on the future of recruitment technology.
Podcast Transcription
Sabri Ben-Achour: This is the marketplace Morning Report. I'm Sabri Ben-Achour in for David Brancaccio. Tomorrow morning, the Labor Department releases the February jobs report. It's a tally of all the jobs lost and gained across the country in February. It is the first jobs report to fully fall under the new Trump administration, and so much has happened. Mass federal government layoffs and downsizing by Doge.
There's new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were the big drops in consumer confidence and the stock market. So how much all that will show up in tomorrow's jobs numbers is an open question marketplace. As Mitchell Hartman explains:
Mitchell Hartman: January was a weird month. Bad winter weather and fires in California kept job creation low, while the unemployment rate actually fell. February could also be weird, or at least packed with surprises, but not for the reasons one might think. Says Dan North that credit insurer Allianz trade North America, it's not so much the doge firings or laying off that's going to show up in the next couple of months.
Those happen too late to be captured in February's jobs report. Rather, says North with tariffs and inflation and market volatility, uncertainty has reached a magnificent scale under this administration, if corporations feel that much uncertainty, I think that's going to cool the hiring process. Dean Baker, at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, agrees,
Dean Baker: The two strongest sectors for job growth have been health care and state and local governments. Think of someone operating a hospital or a city counting on government grants. You can be very cautious. So I expect a lot of hiring won't show up in February.
Mitchell Hartman: We already know one weak spot last month, small business employment, according to data from Intuit crunched by University of Chicago economist Ufuk Akcigit,
Ufuk Akcigit: Businesses that employ at most nine workers are down by 0.99% which is a substantial decline.
Mitchell Hartman: They're suffering from inflation, high interest rates and again, uncertainty.
Ufuk Akcigit: Businesses are forward looking. They would be more risk averse in new hires, but at the same time, whenever they lose workers, they are not replacing either.
Mitchell Hartman: The gloom for February's jobs report is not universal.
Adam Stafford: We represent the largest health systems in the countries and the largest tech organizations in the world. Attract talent. We're seeing a lot of investment right now.
Mitchell Hartman: Adam Stafford at Recruitics says private sector employers are getting ready for an influx of newly unemployed but highly skilled federal workers.
Adam Stafford: Talent that works in tech, in particular mathematical sciences and economics.
Mitchell Hartman: Stafford worries most about federal clerical workers who could be laid off. He says the private sector has already offshored most of those jobs or replaced them with automation.
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About Recruitics
Recruitics delivered the first programmatic job advertising solution and continues to pioneer category-defining technology for end-to-end talent attraction, conversion, and analytics. Recruitics puts AI-powered tools and data into the hands of industry-leading strategists to improve hiring outcomes for talent acquisition teams worldwide. With a best-in-class platform and a commitment to continuous innovation, Recruitics makes it easy for the world's leading companies to attract and hire exceptional talent.
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