The November Talent Market Index: What Employers Need to Know Now

About TMI

The Talvity Talent Market Index (TMI) is a monthly data release that tracks real-time hiring costs across nine major job categories to show how demand, scarcity, and labor market conditions are influencing the price employers pay to attract talent.

The November TMI webinar brought together industry leaders to unpack the latest trends, including Recruitics CEO Adam Stafford, healthcare talent expert Yvette Hansen, and TMI host and Talivity Chief Strategy Officer, Mona Tawakali. Attendees included talent acquisition executives, HR leaders, recruitment marketing professionals, and workforce strategy teams looking for actionable insights to guide 2026 planning.

The November Talent Market Index (TMI) reveals a labor market in transition. Hiring demand is uneven, job seeker confidence is falling, yet talent costs continue to climb across several critical job categories. During the latest TMI webinar, leaders from Recruitics and healthcare talent expert Yvette Hansen unpacked the data and discussed what hiring teams must do next.

This report distills those insights into an executive ready guide designed for decision makers planning their 2026 workforce strategy.

A Labor Market Defined by Mixed Signals

Private Data is Filling the Gap

With no official jobs report due to the record length of the government shutdown, private data has become the main source of insight. LinkedIn projected about forty thousand jobs added in October. ADP reported forty-two thousand private sector jobs, primarily in trade, transportation, and utilities.

Despite this, Indeed postings hit their lowest point since 2021, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Layoffs Spike While Unemployment Holds Steady

Challenger data recorded more than one hundred fifty thousand layoffs in October. This is the highest monthly total in twenty-two years. Yet the unemployment rate remains at 4.3 percent.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the labor market is not showing significant deterioration. That appears counterintuitive until you consider the counterbalance of lower immigration and slower labor force participation, which reduces supply even as hiring cools.

The New Cost Driver is Scarcity

TMI data shows prices rising in categories where talent is hardest to find. Employers are paying for scarcity rather than volume. This dynamic is one of the strongest signals in the current market.

What the Talent Market Index Reveals About Hiring Costs

Key Categories Experiencing Price Growth

• Sales talent prices increased 52 percent month over month and 172 percent year over year.
• Finance and operations rose 15 percent month over month and 94 percent year over year.
• Light industrial grew nearly 40 percent over the past year.
• Retail saw an 81 percent lift year over year as holiday staffing needs increased.
• Healthcare costs remained elevated in one of the tightest labor markets in the country.
  
  

Why Prices Are Increasing

Job seeker mobility continues to shrink. Glassdoor data shows offer rejections are down, quits remain flat, and overall worker confidence has dropped. Workers are choosing stability in an uncertain economy, making it more expensive for employers to attract and convert talent.

This creates what the webinar called scarcity inflation. Even when job postings decline, the price of attracting qualified workers rises because the available pool is smaller and more hesitant to move.

Healthcare Is Driving Nearly All Job Growth

Healthcare Now Represents 86 Percent of All Job Growth

Healthcare is carrying the national labor market. It remains one of the only sectors consistently adding jobs. Postings are up year over year while total US postings have fallen by double digits. This is a textbook example of structural scarcity.

Signs of Pressure Below the Surface

Despite growth, the sector is under stress. Burnout, rising patient demand, uneven layoffs, and operational strain are creating a fragile environment. Yvette Hansen noted that the focus is shifting from hiring more to hiring smarter, with an emphasis on retention, internal mobility, and strategically targeted candidate outreach.

AI’s Early Influence on Clinical and Support Roles

AI is already reducing demand for some healthcare support functions such as radiology and pathology techs through AI assisted imaging. Pharmacy tech workflows are being reshaped by predictive systems. At the same time, clinicians will benefit from AI removing documentation and administrative burden, giving them more time for human centered patient care.

The Rising Importance of Passive Talent

Active Job Seeker Traffic Is Shrinking

Candidates are applying less frequently through traditional job boards. Fear of economic instability is making currently employed workers hesitant to take risks. The result is a talent landscape where passive candidates dominate.

Social Platforms Are Now Primary Recruiting Channels

Talent is spending more time consuming content on social platforms than browsing job boards. Yvette encouraged TA teams to engage talent in the places they already congregate, such as Meta, TikTok, and Reddit.

Recruitics CEO Adam Stafford reinforced this shift by explaining that employers must reach talent where they are, not wait for them to visit job boards.


Generative Search is Transforming Brand Visibility

Zero click searches have surged. Many job seekers now ask generative engines questions like:

• Where should I work in healthcare
  • Which employers have strong employee sentiment
  • Which companies offer the best growth environment

These answers are increasingly powered by reviews, social content, and employee generated narratives.

How AI Is Reshaping the Role of the Recruiter

Recruiters Are Becoming Talent Strategists

Administrative tasks are rapidly being automated. AI is enabling recruiters to focus on human connection, talent advising, storytelling, and passive candidate engagement. Yvette described this shift as a move from job security narratives to learning culture and adaptability narratives in employer brand.

New Strategic Roles Are Emerging

Adam highlighted the rise of roles such as HR business partners and talent agents. These roles blend strategy, storytelling, and quality of hire planning.

Authentic Employee Voice Is Now Essential

Candidates trust employees more than executives. Short-form authentic videos from frontline staff outperform polished corporate messaging. Yvette emphasized eliminating models from campaigns and empowering real employees to tell their stories.

Social at Scale: Transforming Social Media Into a Conversion Engine

Recruitics introduced Social at Scale, a new solution that converts social media into a direct hiring channel. The technology automates job content into dynamic social ads and uses AI to refresh creative variations throughout a campaign to maximize engagement and conversion.

Given the rise of passive talent, Social at Scale is designed to match modern candidate behavior and deliver measurable results in channels where billions of individuals spend their time.

What Employers Should Do Now

Invest in Technology That Gives Time Back

AI and automation must reduce recruiter administrative burden so teams can focus on high quality conversations and relationship building.

Educate Teams About AI’s Value

Fear of AI displacement is common. Leaders must reframe AI as an amplifier, not a threat.

Go Where the Talent Lives

As Adam put it, the priority is simple. Employers must connect with talent in the environments where they consume information.

Build Trust Through Authentic Storytelling

Employees are the most credible voice. Their experiences and stories are the employer brand.

FAQs

What is driving hiring costs up even as job postings decline?

Hiring costs are rising due to structural scarcity. Workers are less likely to leave their current jobs, which reduces the supply of available talent. Employers are paying more to attract qualified candidates in categories where talent is limited.

Why is healthcare responsible for most job growth?

Demand for healthcare services continues to increase due to demographic and societal factors. At the same time, the supply of healthcare workers is not keeping pace. This combination results in higher job growth and consistent upward pressure on wages and recruitment costs.

How is AI changing recruiter responsibilities?

AI is reducing administrative work like screening, scheduling, and documentation. This allows recruiters to focus on strategy, relationship building, storytelling, and candidate experience. Recruiters are evolving into talent advisers and marketers.

Why is passive talent more important than active candidates now?

Active job seeker traffic on job boards has declined due to economic uncertainty and reduced mobility. Passive candidates represent the largest share of the talent pool and require outreach through channels like social media and community platforms.

How are generative engines changing employer brand visibility?

Job seekers increasingly rely on AI to recommend employers. These recommendations draw heavily from employee reviews, social content, sentiment data, and employer reputation indicators. Companies must manage these channels intentionally to remain discoverable.