The Jobs Report Is Canceled — But the Labor Market Is Still Speaking

The Bureau of Labor Statistics may be on pause, but the labor market certainly isn’t.

With the government shutdown delaying the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) official data, employers and economists are operating without their usual compass. But make no mistake — the labor market hasn’t gone silent. The story is still unfolding through private-sector data, and it’s telling us plenty about where hiring stands and where it’s headed.

Indeed’s comprehensive job posting data, one of the best real-time indicators of hiring demand, shows postings down 8.9% year-over-year as of late September. Nearly every sector has cooled — except banking/finance and physicians/surgeons, which continue to post steady growth.

Source: Indeed

Meanwhile, ADP’s private payroll data paints a similar picture: employers cut 32,000 jobs in September, confirming a slowdown in job creation even without the official BLS print.

2. Growth Still Has a Pulse

Emerging datasets from Revelio Labs reveal that education and healthcare remain pillars of job growth — two sectors historically resistant to downturns.

Source: Revelio Labs

In contrast, leisure and hospitality are seeing sharp declines, reflecting cooling consumer confidence and tighter discretionary spending. According to The Conference Board, consumer confidence saw a “sharp deterioration” in September due to inflation worries and job insecurity.

3. Layoffs: It Feels Like 2020 Again

It’s not your imagination — layoffs are mounting. U.S. employers have announced nearly 950,000 job cuts so far this year — the highest since 2020 and the fifth-largest total on record, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

At the same time, announced hiring plans are down 58% year-over-year, signaling that large-scale expansions are on hold as businesses hedge against economic uncertainty.

4. The Pay Picture: Plateau in Progress

Wage growth is flattening. ADP data shows job changers saw 6.6% pay growth year-over-year in September, compared to 4.5% for job stayers. That once-wide 2.1-point incentive gap has narrowed, and it’s reshaping worker behavior.

Source: ADP

Quit rates are down, offer acceptance rates are up, and more employees are prioritizing stability over bold career moves. In short — the “great reshuffle” is over. The era of measured mobility is here.

5. The Candidate Experience Is Changing

Job seekers are feeling the slowdown firsthand.

According to Express Employment Professionals, one in four candidates now expect their job search to take six months or longer. A staggering 83% say they’re open to accepting a role outside their preferred field just to get hired.

Glassdoor data echoes this sentiment — only 17% of candidates declined job offers in September, down from 26% a year ago. The takeaway: employers are regaining leverage, but filling roles — especially high-volume or specialized ones — still requires precision and agility.

6. What Employers Should Be Doing Right Now

The labor market isn’t collapsing — it’s rebalancing.

Demand is cooling, leverage is shifting, and strategy needs to evolve. For talent acquisition and recruitment marketing leaders, this is the moment to refine, not retreat.

Here’s where to focus:

• Invest in the right channels. Test and optimize platforms that deliver efficiency and reach, even if they’re less traditional.
  
  
• Rebalance paid and organic strategies. Ensure cost-effective applicant flow across every funnel stage.
  
  
• Leverage AI to speed up pipelines. Automate intelligently — without compromising candidate quality.
  
  
• Build brand authority where candidates are talking. From Reddit threads to AI-driven search results, employer reputation is being shaped in new spaces. Own your narrative there.
  
  

7. The Road Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

Looking beyond today’s turbulence, several macro trends are set to reshape how employers attract and engage talent:

• AI Certifications & Marketplaces — Platforms like OpenAI’s upcoming job marketplace could transform visibility for AI-proficient talent by mid-2026.
  
  
• LinkedIn’s AI Hiring Assistant — Now globally available, it accelerates recruiter workflows but remains one of the most expensive tools in the stack.
  
  
• TikTok’s Future — Depending on ownership and regulatory outcomes, it could either remain a powerful talent channel or splinter under restrictions.
  
  
• AI Visibility & Authenticity — With candidate discovery increasingly influenced by tools like ChatGPT, authenticity and thought leadership will define which brands rise above the noise.
  
  

Final Thoughts
We may not have a government-issued Jobs Report this month, but the labor market is still speaking — and the message is clear: Adaptability beats optimism. Insight beats instinct.

For talent leaders and recruitment marketers, this isn’t the time to wait for clarity.It’s the time to build smarter, faster, and more resilient recruitment strategies for what’s next.

Want to turn labor market uncertainty into competitive advantage?

Let’s connect. Our team can help you translate shifting trends into sustainable recruitment success.

Sources:

1. Indeed: Indeed Job Postings Index
   
   
2. ADP: National Employment Report
   
   
3. The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Data
   
   
4. Revelio Labs: Labor Market Insights, September 2025
   
   
5. ADP: Private Payroll and Pay Insights, September 2025
   
   
6. Challenger, Gray & Christmas: U.S. Job Cuts Report 2025
   
   
7. Express Employment Professionals: “The New Job Hunt Reality” Survey
   
   
8. Glassdoor: Alternative Jobs Report, September 2025