The October release of the Talent Market Index (TMI) reveals a complex and sometimes counterintuitive labor market: job demand is slipping, worker mobility is stalling, and yet the cost to attract talent continues to rise across nearly every job segment.
Hosted by Mona Tawakali, the October Talent Market Index Live session featured Dr. Matthew Nessler, Senior Economist at KPMG, and Adam Stafford, CEO of Recruitics, who shared timely insights on the interplay between demand, cost, and workforce shifts reshaping the hiring landscape.
What the Data Says: Demand Is Cooling, But Prices Are Rising
Despite the absence of an official BLS October jobs report, alternative data sources such as Indeed, Revelio Labs, and LinkedIn all point to the same trend: job demand is sliding. Layoff announcements are down 26% year over year, but worker mobility has also slowed — meaning fewer people are changing jobs, and more are staying put for stability over higher pay.
That reduced movement is creating artificial tightness in the active labor supply, driving competition — and costs — higher. Every single job segment tracked by Recruitics saw prices rise month over month and year over year, with the lone exception being IT and related fields.
“Fewer jobs, less movement, higher prices — it looks stable on the surface, but it feels very different underneath,” Tawakali summarized.
Hiring Costs Surge Across Every Major Sector
The October TMI reveals significant increases in paid job advertising costs, with employers paying more to attract talent even as overall openings decline.
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The data tells a clear story: quality costs more. With fewer openings and a focus on senior or specialized talent, employers are investing in experience — not volume.
Expert Analysis: Balancing Demand, Supply, and Technology
Dr. Matthew Nessler, KPMG
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Nessler emphasized the “tenuous balance” in today’s labor market. While hiring has slowed, widespread layoffs have largely been avoided. Instead, companies are redistributing talent internally and reducing hours rather than cutting roles.
His ongoing research into the care economy sheds light on the hidden dynamics shaping workforce participation — particularly the growing number of parents, mostly women, exiting or scaling back due to childcare and elder care challenges.
“The U.S. is facing long-standing supply shortages in care work that have been exacerbated post-pandemic,” said Nessler. “We’re seeing these shortages clash with elevated demand, pushing prices up at twice the rate of overall inflation.”
The data shows parental work disruptions are up 20% since the pandemic baseline, with 90% of affected workers being women.
Adam Stafford, Recruitics
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Stafford highlighted the growing divergence between sectors. Hourly work in retail, healthcare, and logistics remains under pressure due to immigration constraints and seasonal demand, while professional sectors are undergoing automation-driven transformation.
“Organizations are continuing to hire — but they’re not growing headcount,” Stafford explained. “They’re hiring for new skill sets while winding down roles that can be automated through AI and other technologies.”
He added that automation is reshaping entry-level professional positions, reducing repetitive “toil” work and elevating the demand for strategic, human-centric skills.
The Care Economy’s Ripple Effect on Labor Force Participation
Both experts agree: the care economy is now a core business issue. Childcare costs and availability are directly affecting labor participation, especially for women. Similarly, the rising need for elder care is tightening labor supply and increasing workforce disruptions.
Employers that invest in backup care benefits, flexible scheduling, and family support programs are better positioned to retain workers and minimize turnover.
“People don’t want to choose between caregiving and career,” said Nessler. “Backup care gives them the ability to be present as both caregivers and professionals.”
Looking Ahead: AI, Demographics, and a Permanently Tight Labor Market
The panel concluded that U.S. employers must prepare for a structurally tight labor market driven by aging demographics and immigration constraints. The Congressional Budget Office now projects that, absent immigration, U.S. population growth could turn negative by 2031 — nearly a decade earlier than previously forecast.
“Labor shortages are inevitable, not cyclical,” Nessler warned. “Employers must rethink who their future workers are and redesign how work gets done.”
Stafford agreed, noting that as automation accelerates, the skill sets that define success will shift dramatically.
“We’ll see less value in technical repetition and more in critical thinking, creativity, and strategic problem-solving,” he said.
Key Takeaways for Employers and TA Leaders
- Costs are rising even as demand cools. Competition for scarce talent remains fierce, especially in logistics, healthcare, and sales.
- Automation is transforming entry-level professional work. Junior roles are being replaced or reshaped by AI, driving demand for higher-order skills.
- Care infrastructure is a business issue. Childcare and elder care access directly affect workforce participation, especially among women.
- Demographics will define the next decade. With slowing population growth and restricted immigration, labor shortages are structural — not temporary.
- Employer brand and personalization are critical. As Stafford noted, “A job post alone won’t attract scarce talent.” Modern talent attraction requires data-driven personalization, storytelling, and audience targeting at scale.
The October 2025 Talent Market Index paints a nuanced picture of a labor market in transition — cooling on the surface, but heating up where it counts. As Recruitics CEO, Adam Stafford concluded:
“Winning in this market isn’t about doing more. It’s about being smarter — understanding where talent is, what they value, and how to reach them.”
Stay tuned for the November Talent Market Index Live session, where Recruitics will continue to track how data, demographics, and disruption shape the future of work.
