Talent Market Index Report November Release

The Recruitics Talent Market Index offers a fresh perspective on industry talent supply and demand dynamics. It tracks the fluctuating prices of attracting talent through paid advertising across diverse media channels. By focusing on pricing data, the Index complements traditional labor market metrics like job openings and hiring volume, providing a more precise signal of demand for talent, regardless of job posting volume.

In this Report:

• • • Segment Analysis: Price Increases and Price Declines
      
    • 2024 Holiday Hiring Season Update
      
    • Post Election Recap
      
      

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October 2024 Key Findings

As Holiday Hiring Costs Climb, a Trump Administration Brings New Labor Market Questions: Special Post-Election Recap

• • • • As the holiday season kicks off, talent attraction costs in retail and transportation are on the rise. Notably, transportation and logistics are experiencing a year-over-year price increase, even as holiday sales are projected to be cooler this year.

• • • • The election outcome and GOP-controlled House & Congress may also shape labor market dynamics. Expected deregulatory efforts and tax cuts could potentially encourage growth in sectors like manufacturing and logistics, though tighter immigration policies could challenge industries reliant on immigrant labor.
        
        
        

Segment Analysis

Price Increases 

Retail 

Retail talent attraction prices have risen as expected this month due to seasonal demand; however, prices are down year-over-year, suggesting that competition for talent is easing. Demand for seasonal retail roles is slightly down, while supply and interest in holiday jobs have increased, aligning with a more modest sales projection for in-store shopping this season.

Transportation & Logistics 

Prices in this sector rose by 36.22% month-over-month, marking a two-month upward trend and a 65.45% year-over-year increase. This growth reflects increased demand for logistics and supply chain roles as companies gear up for holiday fulfillment, with the ongoing expansion of e-commerce reshaping retail and boosting hiring needs.

IT & Related

The IT sector saw a modest month-over-month increase of 0.65%, continuing an upward trend that began in May, and reflecting a substantial year-over-year rise of 61.86%. This ongoing growth underscores the strong demand for tech talent in areas like digital transformation, cybersecurity, and AI. For further insights, see the October 2024 Talent Market Index release.

Sales

Talent Attraction prices in IT have been rising steadily since May, as demand for specialized skills in AI, cybersecurity, and cloud computing remains robust. Despite the downsizing seen in some areas of the tech sector over the past two years, companies are prioritizing critical roles for innovation, digital transformation, and achieving price savings through automation. As a result, demand for professionals who can develop and manage these technologies is increasing.

Price Declines

Finance & Operations


Talent attraction prices for finance and operations declined slightly by 3.06% month-over-month but are still 7.95% higher year-over-year. This minor month-over-month dip may indicate stabilized demand for finance professionals as companies maintain focus on efficiency and compliance without major spikes in recruitment activity.

Food Services 

The food services sector saw a notable 23.52% month-over-month decrease and a 37.35% year-over-year decline in talent attraction prices. This cooling trend points to reduced hiring pressures as more workers enter the market, filling vacancies more readily in in-person roles.

Healthcare


Talent attraction prices for healthcare roles decreased by 1.11% month-over-month but are still 3.17% higher year-over-year. Demand for healthcare professionals remains steady. In October,   payroll growth was largely supported by healthcare, which added 52,000 jobs, primarily due to ongoing demand in long-term care. 

Hospitality 

Talent attraction prices in hospitality dropped by 29.38% month-over-month but remain 20.45% higher year-over-year. The month-over-month decline is driven by seasonal factors, with hiring needs tapering off after the peak summer travel period. Additionally, hospitality jobs were impacted by disruptions from Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, which affected travel and tourism in several regions.

Light Industrial 

Talent attraction prices for light industrial roles increased by 2.47% month-over-month but dropped by 7.69% year-over-year. This suggests stable hiring in the sector, with minor monthly adjustments to meet operational needs as demand normalizes.

2024 Holiday Hiring Season Update 

In the retail sector, projections estimate that approximately 520,000 seasonal jobs will be added for the 2024 holiday season, marking a decrease from 2023 levels. This reduction aligns with weaker holiday sales forecasts and cautious consumer spending. Major employers are still adding seasonal roles, though hiring needs may fluctuate as demand shifts through the season. Leading the seasonal hiring charge are Amazon, with 250,000 open positions; UPS, with 125,000; and Target, which plans to bring on 100,000 temporary workers.

Weather-related disruptions from Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton have affected employment in retail trade, transportation, and warehousing, distorting demand visibility during this peak hiring period. Holiday sales are projected to grow at their slowest rate in six years, with high inflation and rising interest rates creating a more cautious consumer outlook. Currently, 33% of shoppers plan to spend less on holiday purchases than they did in 2023.

Additionally, a shift toward online shopping is evident, with 43% of consumers intending to make most of their holiday purchases online, compared to only 23% who plan to shop in physical stores. We’re seeing the impact of this growing shift to online shopping reflected in a 36% month-over month increase and an even more significant 65% YoY increase. 

With companies like Amazon, UPS, and Target leading the holiday hiring surge, these competitive dynamics underscore the elevated costs for seasonal talent in a cautious consumer environment.

Post Election Recap: What a new Trump Administration Means for Employers and Job Seekers 

The October release of Recruitics’ Talent Market Index reveals a labor market influenced by holiday season preparation and broader economic trends. Recruitment prices in Retail and Transportation have risen less sharply than in past years as companies prepare for peak hiring. The Hospitality and Healthcare sectors are stabilizing but remain essential drivers of demand. As Q4 approaches, employers face the challenge of balancing recruitment prices with securing the needed talent.

1. Deregulation and Business Incentives
   Aimed at Lowering Labor Costs

• • • • For Employers: Trump’s administration is likely to prioritize deregulation in labor practices, potentially easing compliance requirements related to wage standards, worker protections, and safety regulations. For businesses, particularly in industries with significant labor needs, such as retail, hospitality, and manufacturing, this could mean reduced costs and greater flexibility in workforce management. Employers should watch for changes in minimum wage discussions and consider how reduced regulatory burdens might influence workforce structuring, including potential shifts toward more part-time or flexible positions.
      • For Job Seekers: Deregulation can stimulate job growth but may also result in fewer protections in some sectors. Job seekers should stay informed about potential changes and use any regulatory rollbacks to negotiate for additional benefits, job security, or workplace protections, particularly in sectors like retail and hospitality, where labor costs often drive hiring decisions.
        
        

2. Potential Increase in Support for
    Traditional Energy and Manufacturing
    Sectors

• • • • For Employers: Trump’s administration has signaled support for traditional energy industries, such as oil, gas, and coal, and has proposed measures to reinvigorate domestic manufacturing. This focus may lead to new incentives and tax benefits for companies within these sectors. Manufacturing and energy employers could benefit from a more favorable business climate, especially if combined with infrastructure investments, which could drive significant hiring in skilled trades, logistics, and operational roles.
      • For Job Seekers: Candidates with skills in manufacturing, energy, and logistics should stay updated on job openings as employers in these sectors expand operations. With a push for domestic production, job seekers in engineering, skilled trades, and technical roles may find increased demand and stability, particularly in regions with strong manufacturing or energy infrastructure.
        
        

3. Focus on Technology and Infrastructure
    Investment

• • • • For Employers: Trump’s administration is expected to continue emphasizing infrastructure and technology investments. This could drive growth in construction, transportation, and technology-driven industries. Companies in these fields may benefit from increased funding and should prepare by hiring roles in project management, software development, and data analysis. Employers should also consider upskilling current employees to handle the projected demands of large-scale projects and tech innovations.
      • For Job Seekers: With government support expected for infrastructure and technology projects, workers in construction, IT, and engineering could see a surge in job opportunities. Skills in data analysis, project management, and software engineering will be especially valuable. Job seekers interested in these roles should consider certifications or training to align with high-demand areas anticipated under the new administration.
        
        

4. Changes in Immigration Policies
    Affecting Labor Supply

• • • • For Employers: Stricter immigration policies are anticipated, impacting industries that depend on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, hospitality, and technology. Employers in these sectors should consider strategies for addressing potential labor shortages, including attracting local talent or investing in automation. Monitoring visa policy changes will be crucial to adapting recruitment and staffing approaches effectively.
      • For Job Seekers: U.S.-based workers may find greater job availability in industries affected by tighter immigration policies, such as tech and healthcare, where immigrant workers historically filled skill gaps. Domestic candidates in these fields may see increased competition and wage offerings, especially in specialized roles.
        
        

5. Potential Tax Policy Revisions Affecting
    Business Investment

• • • • For Employers: Trump’s administration is expected to pursue corporate tax reductions to stimulate business growth, which may increase capital for workforce investments. Lower taxes could encourage hiring, especially in sectors poised for expansion like construction, manufacturing, and tech. As tax policies are clarified, employers should evaluate potential impacts on budgets for salaries, benefits, and capital improvements.
      • For Job Seekers: Job seekers may see increased hiring and potentially higher wages in response to tax cuts that free up resources for company expansion. This environment could provide leverage for negotiating better pay or benefits, especially in industries where companies are incentivized to hire and grow their workforce.

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Staying on top of the labor market is essential when creating or revamping recruitment strategies. The talent acquisition experts at Recruitics are here to help you navigate any market condition. We use real-time data to pivot, innovate, and collaborate, aiming to make your approach more precise, intuitive, and efficient. Contact us today!