Lipstick, Tariffs, and Talent Strategy: What April Jobs Numbers Are Really Telling Us

On the surface, April’s labor data points to strength and stability. The economy added 177,000 new jobs, and key indicators like the unemployment rate and hire rate remained stable. The quit rate also changed little at 2.1%, according to the latest JOLTS and B.L.S. reports.

What is not as solid is the overall mood of the market. GDP declined for the first time in three years in Q1. Employee uncertainty is surging and job seeker sentiment is…well, bleak.

In short, the data says we're not in a recession—but the mood suggests we’re bracing for one.

Sentiment Watch: Lipstick and Job Seekers

What will I be watching over the next few months? The lipstick index–an economic theory that says when consumers perceive a recession is looming, sales of “affordable luxury” items such as lipstick increase. While it’s not hard science, watching consumer behavior can give us indications of how job seekers might behave.

We’re seeing similar shifts in the job market. According to Recruitics’ data, applications per job dropped to 4.8 in April. Down from 5.6 the same time last year, and well below the 2024 average of 7.9. Many things could be driving this, but my bet is on the increase in uncertainty. When things feel uncertain, people grab onto what they can control. Which, in this case, is staying put.

Source: Glassdoor

The “T” Word: Why Tariffs Are Back on the Radar

Another wild card talent leaders need to watch? Tariffs.

They are on, they are off, and everything in between.

Tariff volatility makes it harder for companies to plan. We’ll see that uncertainty ripple through hiring strategies in the months ahead.

5 Things TA Pros Should Watch

1. Shifts in location strategy. Nearshoaring, reshoring, and shifting investments to new locations will be top of mind. That means new talent pools to scout.
2. Slower hiring in tariff-sensitive sectors. Manufacturing, logistics, and import-heavy industries may take a wait-and-see approach.
3. A focus on high-ROI roles. Hiring will remain strong in strategic areas like AI, automation, and efficiency-building functions. These roles will be competitive. Start building pipelines now.
4. Compensation constraints. Companies are struggling to justify raises when margins are squeezed by policy uncertainty. Early 2025 comp data is already tracking lower than 2024.
5. Reputational risks from layoffs. Leaders may tread cautiously with external hiring to avoid future cuts that attract negative attention.

What Can TA Teams Do?

When macroeconomic forces are beyond your control, your influence matters most in how you prepare and respond.

• Monitor your employer brand closely. Listen and respond. Sentiment will decline if your company ends up in layoff territory. It’s best to be prepared. Proactive communication builds trust.
• Be honest in job descriptions. Be clear about which roles are secure and which may be affected by change. Job seekers want honesty and prioritize job security.
• Stay close to hiring managers. Ensure you have a seat at the table when workforce decisions are being discussed. Have labor supply and demand data ready.
• Arm yourself with market intelligence tools. Especially in growth sectors like AI, up-to-date insights help ensure your offers are competitive.

Bottom line, while leaders stress-test supply chains, job seekers are stress-buying lipstick. And leaning into stability wherever they can find it, as noted in the chart below, highlighting a sharp decline in job seeker activity on Indeed over the past three months.

Source: Recruitics Strategic Consulting

What the April Jobs Report Really Tells Us

Here are three takeaways that matter for talent leaders:

1. Long-term unemployment continues to creep up. 23.5% of unemployed individuals have been out of work 27+ weeks—the highest since 2021. Extended unemployment makes reentry harder and impacts candidate confidence.
   
   

2) Jobs are still being added, but unevenly. Hiring hasn’t stopped, but it has slowed in some sectors and surged in others.

Source: Revelio Labs

• Retail has shed 64,000 jobs so far this year, an almost 300% increase from last year. It will be interesting to see how this evolves as consumers shift to price sensitive mode in the wake of tariffs. On the one hand, a retailer could absorb the cost and have less budget to hire, or, prices increase and consumers spend less, creating less need to hire. 
• Tech hiring intent held steady in April, with 203,000 new job listings reported by CompTIA. However, growth in tech services wasn’t enough to balance out job losses for tech professionals in other industries, such as manufacturing, resulting in an overall decline in tech occupation employment across the broader economy. One clear bright spot: AI. Demand for roles in artificial intelligence—or positions requiring AI skills—is surging. Last month alone saw 55,726 new AI-related job postings, an 184% increase compared to the same time last year.
• Staffing added 3,600 temp jobs last month. Economists at SIA believe this could be driven by pre-tariff work. A positive note for staffing is that their solutions offer companies flexibility with their workforce to scale up or down quickly. Something that may be of interest in times when it’s hard to forecast. 
• Healthcare remains a steady force, adding 51,000 jobs in April. Healthcare is about as recession proof as it gets. With the aging population and labor shortages the gap in supply and demand will continue.

While some companies may be holding a bit on external hiring, they are turning inward and focusing on retention and promotions. A recent survey of 800 executives found that employers expect to promote about 10% of their workforce, up from 8% the previous year.

This is great for current experienced employees, but it could make it harder for new graduates.

3) It’s tough out there for new grads. As graduation rolls around, internship opportunities are down and salary expectations don’t align with market realities. According to ZipRecruiter, new grads expect to earn $101,000, while the average is actually $68,000.

Indeed data also shows a decline in internship postings. Eleven percentage points lower than the same time last year.

Supporting Early-Career Talent

TA teams can play a key role in helping new grads enter the workforce:

• Offer micro-internships or short-term gigs to support entry-level access.
• Anchor roles to skills and growth potential, not years of experience.
• Lean into contract assignments as a launchpad for early-career candidates.

Putting It All Together

Lipstick in shopping carts. Tariffs in planning decks. Neither is a definitive signal of recession—but both tell us people are responding to uncertainty in very human ways.

Now is not the time for panic. It’s a time for thoughtful strategy, transparent communication, and staying close to the signals that matter most. Talent leaders who stay informed, flexible, and grounded in data will be the ones who navigate this moment successfully. And help their organizations do the same.

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