Election-year uncertainty affects job seekers, leading to cautious behavior and lower application rates. However, post-election confidence is rising, with signs of a hiring rebound in early 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Job seekers hesitate to switch roles, prioritizing stability over ideal job fit.
- Applications per job dropped 13.33% during the election quarter.
- Job seeker confidence, resume updates, and application rates are rising in early 2025.
Election years can create a sense of uncertainty, leading many job seekers to approach their search with extra caution. Candidates may hesitate to switch roles, choosing to stay in unfulfilling jobs rather than risk the unknowns of something new. B.L.S. data shows quit rates are low, and at the same time, Glassdoor recently reported that two-thirds of workers feel stuck in their jobs. Gallup also recently found that only 18% of people are satisfied with their current job—hitting a decade low.
The uncertainty during an election year can also pressure job seekers to prioritize stability over fit, causing some to apply to jobs or companies that feel secure rather than those that align with their long-term aspirations or where their passion lies.
Election-year uncertainty can also lead to the perception that finding a job is more challenging. According to a recent FlexJobs survey, 27% of women and 26% of men cited difficulty finding a new job as the top career challenge influenced by the current political climate. As a result, many job seekers believe the hiring market is tougher than it is, leading to more cautious job search behaviors and fewer applications.
Election Quarter Insights: Job Seeker Behavior Analysis
Recruitics analyzed applications per job data in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023 and found that applications per job across all positions decreased from 6.0 in 2023 to 5.2 in 2024. This equates to a 13.33% decline in application activity during the election quarter.
Post-Election Confidence: Signs of a Rebound?
Following the election, three key indicators suggest a potential resurgence in job seeker confidence.
Job Seeker Confidence Survey
ZipRecruiter’s Q4 data revealed that job seeker confidence improved for the first time in three quarters, regardless of political affiliation. This suggests a shift in sentiment as election uncertainty begins to ease.
Resume Activity Surge
Public Insight, which tracks Indeed data, reported a significant spike in resume updates and additions in December—a key indicator of job seeker intent.
Resume activity declined steadily since April, but December saw a 47% increase over November.
While some of this spike may be attributed to New Year’s resolutions, a portion of it could reflect growing confidence among job seekers now that the election cycle has concluded. However, beyond the election’s immediate impact, several broader trends will shape the hiring landscape in 2025.
Strong January Apply Rates
Since the beginning of the year, job seeker activity has notably increased. According to our data, January 2025 data indicates a year-over-year improvement in applications per job, rising from 4.4 in January 2024 to 5.1 in January 2025.
Key Considerations Looking Ahead
It’s impossible to know how 2025 will play out for job seekers, but there are a few trends to keep in mind. Three big things to watch are how politics will guide a job seeker’s decision, how immigration reform impacts the job seeker supply, and how RTO policies impact worker availability, particularly for women.
1) The Role of Politics in Job Seeker Decision-Making
A recent FlexJobs survey revealed that a company's political stance plays a role in job seekers' employment decisions. A few interesting findings from their survey included:
- 60% of candidates consider a company’s political stance when deciding whether to work there.
- 13% say it is a major factor in their decision.
- 22% consider it a minor factor (not a deal breaker).
- 25% acknowledge it as a factor but not the most important one.
- 29% say they would not work for a company whose policies or practices do not align with their values.
- 71% indicate they would work for or consider working for a company with differing political views if the job offers strong compensation or fulfillment.
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) is a significant topic that has been highly politicized in the last few weeks and is tied directly to recruitment. As substantial shifts in corporate approaches to DEI continue, job seekers are likely to respond in ways similar to consumers.
Recent weeks have shown widespread consumer boycotts targeting brands that have rolled back DEI efforts—raising the question of whether companies making similar moves will see a similar impact on job seeker behavior.
Greenhouse’s latest job seeker survey reinforces the importance of DEI in hiring decisions, with 53% in the U.S. stating that it is imperative for companies to promote DEI in their job postings openly. As companies navigate these evolving expectations, their stance on DEI could become increasingly influential in attracting talent.
Beyond DEI, the phrases that job seekers use in their search are influenced by politics. For example, “jobs in Canada” is being searched at elevated rates. The first big spike occurred the week of the election, and searches continued to have elevated interest in February.
Chart source: Google Trends
2) Sweeping Immigration Reform Could Impact Job Seeker Supply
Here are a few key stats to consider:
- Foreign-born workers account for 19.5% of the U.S. labor force.
- As of January, there were 33.3 million foreign-born civilian workers in the U.S., with a labor force participation rate of 66%, higher than the 61.4% participation rate of native-born workers.
- Industries most reliant on immigrant labor include agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare.
If new visa restrictions or processing delays occur, competition for workers will intensify, particularly in states or industries where foreign-born labor is essential.
According to the Kansas City Fed, reducing the immigrant workforce would increase competition among employers, as they would be vying for a smaller talent pool. In turn, wage growth would likely accelerate, with companies needing higher salaries to attract and retain talent.
3) Return-to-Work Mandates May Negatively Impact Women
Return-to-work (RTO) mandates are trending up. Here is what the data says:
- The share of remote job postings continues to fall
- Increasing in-office work has disproportionately led women to quit.
- In June 2023, the prime age labor force participation rate for women between 25 and 54 reached what was then a record high of 77.8 percent. Economists pointed to increased flexible working arrangements as one factor helping women return to work.
While there are clear benefits to in-office collaboration, employers must consider how return-to-office mandates could negatively impact female workforce participation. Companies enforcing strict RTO policies may struggle to attract and retain women, particularly in industries where talent shortages are already challenging.
For employers in these sectors, the key question remains: Can you afford for women to leave the workforce?
Navigating Hiring in 2025
2025 will be a pivotal year for companies as they navigate finding quality talent. While the uncertainty of the election is behind us—potentially boosting job seeker confidence—it’s crucial to recognize that political and social factors still weigh heavily on hiring dynamics.
Many job seekers consider a company’s political stance when evaluating opportunities. They also pay close attention to how organizations approach issues like DEI, influencing their decisions on where to apply.
More than ever, companies must be clear and intentional in their employer value proposition. In a market where job seekers are watching closely, ensuring alignment between company values and candidate expectations will be key to attracting and retaining quality talent.
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