The August jobs report showed a gain of 142,000 jobs, a modest increase in a cooling market, with gains in healthcare, construction, and leisure and hospitality.
Ghost jobs are likely to impact job seekers significantly and could skew the job market's perception.
Due to the weaker-than-expected job report, economists project that the Fed will lower interest rates by 0.25 points at the following meetings for the remainder of 2024.
While growth has slowed, opportunities are still available for employment. The U.S. labor market added 142,000 jobs in August, according to the latest BLS report. While the healthcare sector continues to lead the way in job gains, the monthly increase in August was only 31,000, down from the historical monthly gain of 60,000 jobs seen over the last twelve months. Leisure and hospitality also had meaningful gains as the industry ramps up for peak hiring season for upcoming holiday travel.
Chart Source: BLS
The latest report, coupled with the recent downward revisions, is an indication that the job market is not as hot as it once was and has been cooling for some time now. The BLS revisions made to the jobs numbers mark the most significant downward revision in more than 15 years, with most industries reporting lower gains than initially projected. Only one sector fared positively with the revisions, as private education and health services reported an adjusted gain of 87,000, a three percent increase over the initially reported gains for the industry.
With only a small reduction in August, the unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, trending higher than the same time last year when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent. The unemployment rate has been on an upward swing since the start of 2024, marking the fourth consecutive month of unemployment above four percent.
Chart Source: BLS
One trend likely clouding the monthly jobs report and causing frustration among job seekers is the rise in ghost jobs. A ghost job is a job posting from a genuine company that may not be hiring at the moment. Many organizations taking a wait-and-see approach to talent acquisition for the remainder of the year use ghost jobs to collect interest from active job seekers and find a hidden gem who may receive an offer if the skills are business-critical.
According to the May 2024 survey from ResumeBuilder, 3 in 10 companies currently have active fake listings. While this may be a creative way to try and exhibit growth to investors and competitors, ghost jobs give job seekers false hope and a false perception of the labor market.
Looking back at the second quarter of this year, the JOLTS report showed positive trends for job openings and turnover. Still, this data did not show the actual reality of job seeker experiences. The latest BLS job revisions are shining a light on ghost jobs and how they are potentially skewing the perception of the job market.
Posting ghost jobs is risky for companies and may ultimately impact employer branding and sentiment. Aerotek’s 2024 job seeker survey reported that seventy-one percent of respondents feel employers are slower to respond to applications. The unfortunate result of ghost jobs, such as leading on ready and eager candidates, can turn a once excited consumer of your brand (or even paying customer) into a detractor. And with the power of social media, those detractors can easily share their frustrations in a public forum and turn their experience into bad press for your brand.
Job seekers are not wrong in feeling like the job search is taking longer than in the past. The hire rate has continued to drop since 2023 and is below the rates seen prior to the pandemic.
Chart Source: St Louis Fed
Jobseekers of all skills, credentials, and work history find it increasingly difficult to land a job in today’s climate. One GenX job seeker, in an August 2024 interview with Business Insider, stated they had applied to over 200 open roles since starting the job hunt in February 2024 and had received only 10 interviews. While the job reports in early 2024 showed a positive trend, one thing is certain – the job hunt is harder today than it was years ago.
After reaching record highs in June, the ADP employee motivation and commitment index fell in August following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. As employees begin to feel the effects of the pullback in hiring and lack of bandwidth, they become less motivated to stay at their current jobs.
Burnout is another factor impacting workers. For the first time since the review site started tracking this data in 2016, the share of Glassdoor reviews mentioning related terms has reached the highest share. Those reviews mentioning burnout also rank lower in the business outlook as employees lose faith in leadership decision-making.
Chart Source: Glassdoor
Economists expect a reduction in the interest rate by about 0.25 points, which would be the first since the 2020 pandemic. Semafor predicted that a weaker-than-expected jobs report would bolster the case for a larger cut. According to Evercore ISI, reductions to the interest rate are expected to continue for the remainder of the year, by 0.25 points at each of the next meetings of 2024 and well into 2025.
What that means for the recruitment industry is that lower interest rates are expected to unlock new investment in human capital. Given the growing labor force participation rate, this is perfect timing, especially for those of prime working age.
Chart Source: St. Louis Fed
With the expected declines in interest rates, ZipRecruiter has optimism for the future of the job market.
While there are headwinds for talent acquisition as we wrap up the remainder of the year, one tailwind that may be ahead is attrition and a second version of the Great Resignation. Recruitics’ CEO Adam Stafford, in a recent article by HR Brew, says “There’s a lot of dominoes that have to fall to create a Great Resignation 2.0.” Employee engagement and having a hold of your employer brand is essential for organizations who may have recently pulled back on hiring.
According to Bankrate’s latest Employment Security survey, nearly half of workers plan to look for other job opportunities next year, even as the job market slows. Adam shared that employers can best use this time by investing in their teams and ensuring employees are connected to the why behind their work. As employee confidence fluctuates from month to month, employers are responsible for building trust and fostering a supportive work environment to address burnout and keep employees motivated.
—
Staying on top of the labor market is essential when creating or revamping recruitment strategies. The talent acquisition experts at Recruitics are here to help you navigate any market condition. We use real-time data to pivot, innovate, and collaborate to make your approach more precise, intuitive, and efficient.
Contact us today!
