According to Friday’s BLS Employment Situation report, U.S. employers added 227,000 jobs in November. Upward revisions were also posted in September (+32K) and October (+12K), demonstrating more substantial gains than initially reported.
November’s gain exceeded economist predictions of closer to 215,000, but a significant rebound was expected. Many labor economy experts urged that October’s depressed jobs report reflected more temporary job losses resulting from the Boeing strike and hurricanes Milton and Helene than anything else.
Education and health services lead job gains, which is expected to continue due to macroeconomic factors, including the size of the U.S.’s aging population.
As November concluded, October’s southeastern U.S. hurricanes and Boeing’s strike directly impacted November’s reported addition of 22,000 manufacturing roles and 53,000 leisure and hospitality jobs. Specifically for manufacturing, Boeing recovered over 33,000 manufacturing jobs following the strike, so November’s reported gain of 22,000 shows a total net depressed gain for the sector.
Source: NYTimes.com
In the retail sector, a loss of 28,000 jobs was reported in November. The National Retail Federation reported that Thanksgiving weekend sales were better than expected, but overall still came in below 2023. At the start of the Q4 seasonal hiring period, total hires were forecasted to come in under 2023 levels, so November’s dip is anticipated to be in line with this projection.
Source: Reuters.com
Looking ahead to the strength of the U.S. labor market, in her recent coverage of the November jobs report, ZipRecruiter’s Julia Pollak expressed concern in overly focused gains within a few sectors and the potential impact of a lack of diversification: “While health care and government hiring have been unusually strong over the past year, recent declines in job openings suggest they are unlikely to sustain that pace. Without a turnaround in other sectors, overall job growth could slow further.”
While job growth has continued to moderate, indicators point to a more hopeful landscape for job seekers. The Conference Board’s November consumer confidence report showed that 15.2% of consumers said that jobs were “hard to get,” down from 17.6% the month prior. The total U.S. nonfarm quit rate also ticked up for the first time in 17 months, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS report, which is typically a sign that job seekers are more confident in their ability to find a new role.
Also, according to ADP’s November Pay Insights, average pay gains for job stayers increased for the first time in 25 months, and pay gains rose for job changers by 7.2%, up from 6.7% in September and October. This, coupled with the fact that wage growth rates have outpaced inflation growth rates, spells greater buying power for American workers.
Source: ADP Pay Insights
Finally, another early indicator that hiring may rebound next year is a recent increase in the number of job postings for recruiters. LinkedIn reported that recruiter demand has stabilized and sits 16% above the baseline as of September 2024. While this recovery does not match the peaks seen during the Great Reshuffle, it is a positive sign amid a year marked by the “Great Stay.”
Source: LinkedIn
Even with these positive early signals, it is still taking job seekers longer to find a job, having peaked in November at over 5.5 months (23.7 weeks) for the average number of weeks unemployed. Looking ahead, with the integration of AI tools for talent acquisition teams and job seekers, more employers are focused on quality measures, leading to longer and more complex hiring processes. January is typically a heavy job seeker month, so job seekers may experience greater delays or rejections as competition picks up.
This is the big question for many employers and job seekers, as intended political and monetary policy changes continue to take shape, this month at the Fed’s next meeting and then after the new administration takes office on January 20.
The U.S. is on track with the soft landing intended by initial rate cuts started this past September to avoid a drop-off in the labor market. NPR’s Chief Economics correspondent Scott Horsley said, “Markets are betting the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-percentage point at their next meeting in a couple of weeks. But after that, the Fed could be in wait-and-see mode. Policymakers feel like they don't need to be in a hurry to cut rates because the job market doesn't look to be in danger of sudden collapse.”
Of course, many job seekers and employers hope that continued borrowing rate cuts will lead to increased hiring and job gains in 2025.
Other big looming changes include import tariffs that President-Elect Donald Trump has promised to impose, and sweeping immigration reforms, which have potentially seismic implications for the labor market and the economy at large.
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